Roger W. Spencer


Vernon F. Taylor Professor of Economics 2008 - Present

Professor of Economics 1985 - 2008



Department of Economics
Trinity University
One Trinity Place
San Antonio, TX 78212-7200
Phone: (210) 999-7222
FAX: (210) 999-7255


EDUCATION:                                         B.S., Virginia Military Institute, 1961

                                                                  Ph.D., (Economics) University of Virginia, 1969


ACADEMIC:                                           Professor, Department of Economics, Trinity University, 1985 - present

                                                                  Dean, Division of Business & Administrative Studies, Trinity University, 1980-1985

                                                                  George Washington University, Lecturer, 1978-1980

                                                                  Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University at Reston, Lecturer, 1978-1980

                                                                  University of South Carolina, Visiting Professor of Economics, 1974

                                                                  Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville, 1971-1972, Adjunct Associate Professor, Economics    


                                                                  Washington University, Lecturer, Graduate Business Department, 1975-1976

                                                                  University of Missouri at St. Louis, Instructor, 1969

                                                                  University of Virginia, Graduate Instructor, 1967-1968


OTHER EMPLOYMENT:                     Senior Research Coordinator, Securities and Exchange Commission, 1976-1980

                                                                  Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1968-1976


PUBLICATIONS (SINCE 1980):           "Channels of Monetary Influence:  A Survey" in Havrilesky-Boorman, Current

                                                                                                   Issues in Monetary Theory and Policy, New York University, 1980.

                              "The Regulatory Framework For Banks Securities Activities," in The Securities

                                                               Activities of Commercial Banks, New York University, 1980.

                                                                 "Matrix Scaling of Subjective Probabilities of Economic Forecasts," Economics

                                                                                                   Letters, April 1986 (with R. Jensen).

                                                                  Lives of the Laureates, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1986 (with

                                                                                                   W. Breit), editors.

                                                                "Expectations and the Phillips Curve:  An Ex-Ante Approach,"  Atlantic

                                                                                                   Economic Journal, July 1986 (with D. Walz).

                                                                "Experiential Learning in Economics," The Journal of Economic Education,

                                                                                                   Fall 1986 (with D. Van Eynde).

                                                                "Iacocca:  An Autobiography,"  Business Economics, July 1986, book review.

                                                                "Psychological Risk Scales and the Precautionary Demand for Money," Journal

                                                                                                   of Economic Psychology, 8, 1987 (with J. Sciortino and J. Huston).

                                                                "A Monthly Model of Bank Reserve Aggregates,"  Atlantic Economic

                                                                                                   Journal, September 1987 (with M. Tindall).

                                                                The Estimation of Forecast Bias:  A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Journal

                                                                                                   of Macroeconomics, Spring 1988 (with D. Walz).

                                                                "Continental Illinois Bank and Structural Change in the Banking Industry,"

                                                                                                   Midwestern Journal of Business and Economics, Winter 1988 (with D. Walz).

                                                                "Risk and Income Distribution, Journal of Economic Psychology, 9, 1988

                                                                                                   (with J. Sciortino and J. Huston).

                                                                "Lecture Versus Experiential Learning:  Their Differential Effects on Long

                                                                                                   Term Memory," Organizational Behavior Teaching Review, Issue 4,

                                                                                                   1988 (with D. Van Eynde).

                                                                "The Informational Content of Forward Rates:  Further Evidence,"  Journal

                                                                                                   of Financial Research, Spring 1989 (with D. Walz).

                                                                The Interest Sensitivity of Commercial Bank Equity Returns:  New Evidence,"

                                                                                                   The Southern Business Review, Vol. No. 2, Fall 1989 (with D. Walz).

                                                                Lives of the Laureates, Second Edition, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

                                                                                                   Press, 1990 (with W. Breit, editors).

                                                                "A New Look at the Federal Reserve Reaction Function,"  Atlantic Economic

                                                                                                   Journal, March 1990 (with D. Walz).

                                                                "Forecasting Expected Money," Atlantic Economic Journal, June 1992 (with D. Walz).

                                                                "Forecasting with the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Midwestern Journal of

                                                                                                   Business and Economics, Winter 1992 (with D. Walz).

                                                                "Rational Forecasts: On Confirming Ambiguity as the Mother of Conformity,"

                                                                                                  Journal of Economic Psychology, December 1993 (with J. Huston).

                                                                "Competitive Inflation Forecasting," Journal of Business and Economic

                                                                                                  Perspectives, Fall 1994 (with J. Huston).

                                                                "Monetary Policy at Work: Lessons From the FOMC Transcripts,"       Journal of

                                                                                                   Economic Education, Fall 1996.

                                                                "FOMC Anti-Inflation Policy:  A Quicker Trigger or Nothing New," Studies in

                                                                                                   Economics and Finance, Spring 1997 (with J. Huston).

                                                                “Build It and They Will Come:  An Empirical Investigation,” Midwestern Journal

                                                                                                   of Business and Economics, Winter 1997 (with J. Huston).

                                                                “Borrowed Reserves and Deposit Variation:  The Risks to Monetary Policy,”

                                                                                       Atlantic Economic Journal, September 1997 (with M. Tindall).

                                                                “Monetary Lags: Changing or Constant?” Journal of Business and Economic

                                                                                                   Perspectives, Fall/Winter 1998 (with J. Huston).

                                                                “The Information in the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates: Capital Market

                                                                                                   Imperfections,” Journal of International Markets, Institutions, and Money,

                                                                                                   Vol. 9, 1999 (with J. Gonzalez and D. Walz).

                                                                “Central Bank Reserve Management: Aggregate Targets and Interest Payments on

                                                                                                   Reserves,” International Advances in Economic Research, May 2000 (with

                                                                                                   M. Tindall).

                                            “The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Mexican Economy,” Contemporary

                                                                                                   Economic Policy, July 2000 (with J. Gonzalez and D. Walz).

                                                     “A Road Less Traveled: The Institutionalist Walter Adams,” Challenge,

                                                                                          January-February 2001.

                                                     “Quality, Uncertainty, and the Internet: The Market for Cyber Lemons,” The American

                                                                                          Economist, Spring 2002 (with J. Huston).

                                                     “The ‘Taylor Rule’ and Three Monetary Regimes,” Studies in Economics and Finance,

                                                                                        Autumn 2002 (with J. Huston).

                                                     "A Contemporary Analysis of Mexican Stock Market Volatility," Applied Financial Economics,

                                                                                        13:10, October 2003 (with J. Gonzalez and D. Walz).

                                                            "The Dollar and the Peso:  Where is the 'Peso Problem'?" Journal of Business and

                                                                                        Economic Perspectives, 29:1, Spring/Summer 2003 (with J. Gonzalez and D. Walz).

                                                     "International Monetary Policy:  A Global Taylor Rule," International Advances in Economic

                                                                                        Research, May 2005 (with J. Huston).

                                                            “Determinantes de la Estructura Temporal de las Tasas de Interes:  El Caso Mexicano,”

                                                                                                Comercio Exterior, April 2006 (with J. Gonzalez and D. Walz).

                                                            The Federal Reserve and the Bull Markets: From Benjamin Strong to Alan Greenspan

                                                                                                (with John Huston), Edwin Mellen Press, Lewistown, New York, 2006.

                                                           "Federal Reserve Policy and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," (with John Huston), International Journal

                                                                                                of Economic Issues, June 2008.

"Speculative Excess and the Federal Reserve's Response," Studies in Economics and Finance, No. 1, 2009

                                             (with John Huston).

"Influential Macromonetary Publications and Economists," The American Economist, Vol. 53, No. 2 (Fall

     2009), with J. Huston and R. Branyan.



"The Bernanke Fed and its Predecessors: A Fundamental Comparison," October 2009 Presentation at the


    Boston Meetings of the International Atlantic Economic Association, with D. Walz and


    J. Huston.


"The Bernanke Fed and Transparency: Evidence from the Futures Market," November 2009 Presentation


              at the San Antonio Meetings of the Southern Economic Association, with J. Huston and


              E. Gulyas.