This problem set is due Thursday, November 1^st, at the beginning of the class period.  Problem sets done on notebook paper or unstapled will not be accepted.  Late problem sets are unacceptable also.

1.  In 2001 Ireland faces a large international trade deficit (or negative net exports).

a)  Draw a diagram representing the Irish economy during 2001 (Hint:  In this diagram, equilibrium output must occur at a level in which net exports are negative; and this should be shown in your diagram).

b)  Assume that the government wants to reduce the trade deficit without changing the level of national output.  Describe the changes in fiscal policy and in the exchange rate that would be necessary to achieve these objectives.  Use a diagram to show the effects of your proposed policy changes.

2.  You are given the following information about Zanata’s economy: 

•      Each year consumers spend $400 million regardless of the level of their disposable income.  In addition to those $400 million, they always spend 90% of their yearly disposable income.

•      Investment is fixed at $250 million.

•      Government expenditures are $350 million.

•      Net taxes equal $400 million.

•      Exports are $450 million.

•      Imports are always equal to 15% of the level of disposable income.

a)  How much would Zanata’s equilibrium level of output be?

b)  How much would net exports be when this economy is at equilibrium output?

c) Zanata’s main export products are Michael Jackson’s CDs.  Due to new medical discoveries that prove that listening to Michael Jackson’s music reduces performance in economics exams, Zanata’s exports fall by $270 million to a new level of $180 million.  How much would Zanata’s new equilibrium level of output be?

d)  How much would net exports be when this economy is at its new equilibrium output?

e)  Dr. Enya, Zanata’s President, decides that she wants equilibrium output to go back to its original level.  How much would she have to decrease taxes to achieve her objective?

f)  How much would net exports be when the policies of President Enya bring equilibrium output back to its original level?

3.  You are given the following information about the U.S. economy:  When unemployment is at its natural rate, which is 5 percent, government outlays are 8 percent of GDP, while taxes and other government revenues are equal to 10 percent of GDP. For each 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, government outlays increase by 3 percentage points of GDP and taxes fall by 2 percentage points of GDP.  There is no inflation.

a)  In 2002, the unemployment rate is 6%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

b)  In 2003, the unemployment rate is 7%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

c)  In 2004, the unemployment rate is 8%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

d)  In 2005, the U.S. Congress and the President decide to cut taxes and increase government expenditures to stimulate the economy.  Now you are told that when unemployment is 5 percent, government outlays are 11 percent of GDP, while taxes and other government revenues are equal to 8 percent of GDP.  Furthermore, as happened before, for each 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, government outlays increase by 3 percentage points of GDP and taxes fall by 2 percentage points of GDP.  Assuming that these policies make the unemployment rate fall to 6%, calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

e)  In 2006, the unemployment rate is 4%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government (Assume that the changes that took place in 2005 are permanent).

4.  You are given the following information about Phish’s economy:

• Each year consumers spend $200 million regardless of the level of their disposable income.  In addition to that $200 million, they always spend 60% of their yearly disposable income.

• Investment is fixed at $300 million.

• Government expenditures are $500 million.

• Taxes equal 25% of income.

• Exports are $800 million.

• Imports are always equal to $400 million plus 10% of the level of disposable income.

 a)  How much would Phish’s equilibrium level of output be?

b)  How much would net exports be when this economy is at equilibrium output?

c)  How much would the net government surplus (or deficit) be when this economy is at equilibrium output?

d)  Due to lack of confidence in the economy, Phish’s consumers decide to cut their autonomous consumption level by $150 million to a new level of only $50 million.  How much would Phish’s new equilibrium level of output be?

e)  How much would the net government surplus (or deficit) be when this economy is at its new equilibrium output?  Was this change in the surplus (or deficit) due to structural or cyclical reasons?  Explain.

f)  Following supply-side ideas, and in order to stimulate the economy Phish’s President, Dr. Paul Languedoc, cuts taxes from 25% of income to a new level of only 20% of income.  How much would Phish’s new equilibrium level of output be?

5. Visit the U.S. Office of Management and Budget web site (http://www.gpo.gov/usbudget/index.html) and use the FY 2002 Federal Budget Publications to obtain the data necessary to answer the following questions.

a)  How much was the total budget surplus or deficit of the Federal Government for each year from 1980 until 2000? (Note:  You should look for the Historical Tables section, “Table 1.1-Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits:  1789-2006” to get these numbers)

b)  Was the change in the actual deficit from 1980 to 1983 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

c)  Was the change in the actual deficit from 1984 to 1986 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

d)  Was the change in the actual deficit from 1990 to 1992 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

e)  Was the change in the actual deficit (or surplus) from 1992 to 2000 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

f)  How much was the estimated total budget surplus or deficit of the Federal Government for each year from 2001 until 2006 according to the Historical Tables (these estimations were prepared at the beginning of 2001)?

g)  How much was the estimated total budget surplus or deficit of the Federal Government for each year from 2001 until 2006 according to the Mid-Session Review Table (You need to look for “Table 3. April and Mid-Session Budget Totals” of this review that was prepared during August of 2001)?

h)  Why are the two estimates from parts f) and g) different?  Are these changes due to cyclical or structural reasons?

6.  Assume that you are hired as an economic advisor to the Chairperson of the Federal Reserve Bank.  Your boss is interested in knowing the different levels of investment that would take place when the interest rate changes.  She gives you the following information about the projects that investors are contemplating for this year (Note:  Operation costs do not include financial costs):

a)  How much would the level of investment be when the interest rate equals 6%?  Explain fully.

b)  How much would the level of investment be when the interest rate equals 3%?  Explain fully.

c)  Use the information from parts a) and b) to draw the investment demand curve for this economy.

d)  The Chairperson of the Federal Reserve System is contemplating an expansionary monetary policy that would result in a decrease in the interest rates from 6% to 3%.  Assuming that you are a mainstream economist, what would you predict the result of this policy would be on the level of real GDP and on the price level?  Draw a diagram in support of your answer and explain fully  (Note:  You do not have sufficient data to provide exact numbers for real GDP nor price level, however, you can discuss the direction of their changes).

7.  Visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis web site (http://www.bea.doc.gov/).  Click on “GDP and related data.”  Then click on “GDP and other major NIPA series” and look for “Table 1.  Gross Domestic Product” (this table was published on the August 2001 issue of the “Survey of Current Business”).

a)  Write down the Gross Domestic Product, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Imports for every year from 1991 until 2000 (use yearly data).  Use this dataset to calculate the implied values for the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity to import, assuming that taxes do not vary with income.

b)  Calculate the open economy multiplier for every year from 1992 until 2000 (assume that taxes do not vary with income).

c)  What happened to the open economy multiplier from 1998 to 2000?  Why did it increased (or decreased)?  What does this imply for the effect of a change in government expenditures on GDP?