Spring 2005

ECONOMICS 1312

J.G. Gonzalez

 

 

 

 

Problem Set # 2

 

 

            This problem set is due Tuesday, March 29th, at the beginning of the class period.  Problem sets done on notebook paper or unstapled will not be accepted.  Late problem sets are unacceptable also.

 

1.  In 2005 Morocco faces a large international trade deficit (or positive net exports).

a)  Draw a diagram representing the Moroccan economy during 2005 (Hint:  In this diagram, equilibrium output must occur at a level in which net exports are negative; and this should be shown in your diagram).

 

b)  Assume that the government wants to reduce the trade deficit without changing the level of national output.  Describe the changes in fiscal policy and in the exchange rate that would be necessary to achieve these objectives.  Use a diagram to show the effects of your proposed policy changes.

 

2.  You are given the following information about Linkin’s economy:

 

     Each year consumers spend $1,200 million (or $1.2 billion) regardless of the level of their disposable income.  In addition to those $1,200 million, they always spend 80% of their yearly disposable income.

     Investment is fixed at $700 million.

     Government expenditures are $600 million.

     Net taxes equal $450 million.

     Exports are $900 million.

     Imports are always equal to 5% of the level of disposable income.

 

a)  How much would Linkin’s equilibrium level of output be?

 

b)  How much would net exports be when this economy is at equilibrium output?

 

c) Linkin’s main exports are comic books.  Due to recent research that proved that reading comic books decreases performance in economics exams, Linkin’s exports decreased by $300 million to a new level of $600 million.  How much would Linkin’s new equilibrium level of output be?

 

d)  How much would net exports be when this economy is at its new equilibrium output?

 

e)  Dr. Chester Bennington, Linkin’s President, decides that he wants equilibrium output to go back to its original level.  How much would he have to cut taxes to achieve his objective?

 

f)  How much would net exports be when the policies of President Bennington bring equilibrium output back to its original level?

 

3.  You are given the following information about the U.S. economy:  When unemployment is at its natural rate, which is 5 percent, government outlays are 16 percent of GDP, while taxes and other government revenues are equal to 12 percent of GDP. For each 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, government outlays increase by 2 percentage points of GDP and taxes fall by 1 percentage point of GDP.  There is no inflation.

 

a)  In 2005, the unemployment rate is 6%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

 

b)  In 2006, the unemployment rate is 8%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

 

c)  In 2007, the unemployment rate is 9%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

 

d)  In 2008, the U.S. Congress and the President decide to increase taxes and cut government expenditures to reduce the government deficit.  Now you are told that when unemployment is 5 percent, government outlays are 15 percent of GDP, while taxes and other government revenues are equal to 14 percent of GDP.  Furthermore, as happened before, for each 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, government outlays increase by 2 percentage points of GDP and taxes fall by 1 percentage point of GDP.  Assuming that the unemployment rate remains at 9% after these policies are implemented; calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits (as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government.

 

e)  In 2009, the unemployment rate is 7%.  Calculate the actual, structural, and cyclical deficits as percentages of GDP) of the U.S. government (Assume that the changes that took place in 2008 are permanent).

4.  You are given the following information about Canoga’s economy:

·        Each year consumers spend $2,000 million (or $2.0 billion) regardless of the level of their disposable income.  In addition to that $2,000 million, they always spend 60% of their yearly disposable income.

·        Investment is fixed at $3,400 million.

·        Government expenditures are $4,000 million.

·        Taxes equal 10% of income.

·        Exports are $2,000 million.

·        Imports are always equal to $1,000 million plus 20% of the level of disposable income.

 

a)  How much would Canoga’s equilibrium level of output be?

 

b)  How much would net exports be when this economy is at equilibrium output?

 

c)  How much would the net government surplus (or deficit) be when this economy is at equilibrium output?

 

d)  Due to optimism about the future of the economy, Canoga’s investors decide to increase their investment level by $800 million to a new level of $4,200 million.  How much would Canoga’s new equilibrium level of output be?

 

e)  How much would the net government surplus (or deficit) be when this economy is at its new equilibrium output?  Was this change in the surplus (or deficit) due to structural or cyclical reasons?  Explain.

 

f)  Following supply-side ideas, and in order to stimulate the economy Canoga’s President, Dr. Phoebe Halliwell, cuts taxes from 10% of income to a new level of only 7.6% of income.  How much would Canoga’s new equilibrium level of output be?

 

 

5. Visit the U.S. Office of Management and Budget web site (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/) and use the FY 2006 Federal Budget Publications to obtain the data necessary to answer the following questions (use the “Browse the FY06 budget” link).

 

a)  How much was the total budget surplus or deficit of the Federal Government for each year from 1980 until 2004? (Note:  You should look for the Historical Tables section, “Table 1.1-Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits:  1789-2010” to get these numbers)

 

b)  Was the change in the actual deficit from 1980 to 1983 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

 

c)  Was the change in the actual deficit from 1984 to 1986 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

 

d)  Was the change in the actual deficit from 1990 to 1992 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

 

e)  Was the change in the actual deficit (or surplus) from 1992 to 2000 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

 

f)  Was the change in the actual deficit (or surplus) from 2001 to 2004 mainly due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

 

g)  How much was the estimated total budget surplus or deficit of the Federal Government for each year from 2005 until 2010 according to the Historical Tables (these estimations were prepared at the beginning of 2005)?

 

h)  Why do you think the government is estimating a decline in the future deficit?  Is this due to cyclical or structural reasons?  Explain.

 

 

6.  Assume that you are hired as an economic advisor to the Chairperson of the Federal Reserve Bank.  Your boss is interested in knowing the different levels of investment that would take place when the interest rate changes.  She gives you the following information about the projects that investors are contemplating for this year (Note:  Operation costs do not include financial costs):

 

 

Project

Total

Investment

 

Revenues

Operation

      Costs

A

50

25

21

B

75

30

20

C

15

8

7

D

140

50

35

E

125

40

29

 

a)  How much would the level of investment be when the interest rate equals 9%?  Explain fully.

 

b)  How much would the level of investment be when the interest rate equals 7%?  Explain fully.

 

c)  Use the information from parts a) and b) to draw the investment demand curve for this economy.

 

d)  The Chairperson of the Federal Reserve System is contemplating a tight monetary policy that would result in an increase in the interest rates from 7% to 9%.  Assuming that you are a mainstream economist, what would you predict the result of this policy would be on the level of real GDP and on the price level?  Draw a diagram in support of your answer and explain fully  (Note:  You do not have sufficient data to provide exact numbers for real GDP nor price level, however, you can discuss the direction of their changes).

 

 

7.  Visit the Bureau of Economic Analysis web site (http://www.bea.doc.gov/).  Click on “Gross Domestic Product.”  Then click on “Interactive NIPA tables” and then on “Frequently Requested NIPA Tables.”  Look for “Table 1.1.5  Gross Domestic Product (A) (Q)” and search for the annual data from 2001 until 2004.

 

a)  Write down the Gross Domestic Product, Personal Consumption Expenditures, and Imports for every year from 2001 until 2004 (use yearly data).  Use this dataset to calculate the implied values for the marginal propensity to consume and the marginal propensity to import, assuming that taxes do not vary with income.

 

b)  Calculate the open economy multiplier for 2002, 2003, and 2004 (assume that taxes do not vary with income).

 

c)  What happened to the open economy multiplier from 2002 to 2004?  Why did it increase (or decrease)?  What does this imply for the effect of a change in taxes on GDP?