Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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GLOBALIZATION & THE AGING REVOLUTION
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PRICES NOWADAYS ARE DETERMINED ON THE GLOBAL MARKET
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REMEMBERING THE DEMOGRAPHICS
  • In the developed industrial world, birth rates plummeted as life-expectancies increased.
    • In 1988, the average Japanese woman of child-bearing age had just 1.57 children (vs. 1.87 in the U.S.)--the lowest fertility rate in the world--down from 1.77 children in 1979 and 4.54 in 1949
    • 95% of world’s population increase in first 15 years of the 21st century will occur in developing countries. Populations in Japan, Italy, Spain and Russia are projected to decline.
  • In the U.S. in 1950, there were 16 workers for each retiree; in 2000, the ratio is down to 3.4 and is projected to reach 2.0:1 in 2034
    • In much of West Europe and Japan this ratio is even lower.
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ECONOMIC & POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES
  • slower population growth at home means slow-growing domestic markets
  • unless young mercenaries can be recruited, smaller pool for the military and greater reliance on battlefield technologies
  • with aging of workforce, innovation may suffer
  • as retirees sell their assets instead of saving, investment monies contract
  • according to Ben J. Wattenberg in The Birth Dearth In 1950, 22% of the world's population lived in industrial democracies in 1950; in 1985 it was 15%; according to the projection, by 2100, 5% will live in industrial democracies.
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BUT THE AGING REVOLUTION COULD BE EVEN MORE DRAMATIC IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD
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THE AGING REVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AT FASTER RATE IN DEVELOPING WORLD
  • In 2000, about 7% of the world’s population was 65 and older.  Projections are that by 2050 this proportion will be 16%--about the same as Florida now.
  • Advanced developing nations like Brazil, South Korea, and Argentina will in 30 years look like the mature developed world now.
    • However, there pensions, savings and health care will be less.
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OLDER WORKERS ADD COST TO FINAL PRODUCTS: CONSEQUENCE OF SENIORITY SYSTEMS, GREATER HEALTH CARE COSTS, ETC.
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Japan's 1998 Employment Security Act for Older People
  • government offers financial incentives to Japanese firms that hire or retain older workers
  • size of a grant depends on the number of people age 60 or older working at the company
  • kaizen: designing workplaces to fit the worker vs. designing workers to fit the workplace
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GERONTECHNOLOGY
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With a dearth of younger workers some traditional industries will face personnel shortages
  • Mining,
  • Forestry,
  • Construction,
  • Agriculture,
  • Manufacturing
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THINKING ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES TO FARMERS—WILL GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES TO AGED INDUSTRIES BE FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDIES FOR AGED WORKERS?
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AFFLUENT NATIONS EXPORT THEIR RETIREES TO NATIONS WHERE PENSION MONIES “GO FURTHER”
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PRESCRIPTION DRUGS & THE WORLD SYSTEM
  • With the failure of Congress to devise a prescription drug plan for the old, many elderly are left to devise their own strategies of saving money on prescription drugs.
  • This forces some to look abroad, where some drugs that require a prescription in the US are sold over the counter--and for much less.
  • American doctors can also apply for licenses that allow them to write prescriptions for drugs in Canada.
  • The demand for Canadian drugs has created a job for middlemen, who order drugs for residents that want to avoid taking the trip to Canada.
  • The Food and Drug administration does not condone the purchasing of drugs abroad or over the Internet.