1	Fear, Politics, & Group Cohesion Rudolph Gonzalez, Kevin Doyle, & Christopher Granados
2	What is it? Political figures use fear tactics Fear tactics are used because emotions such as fear play a larger part than reason in forming political beliefs When afraid, electorate tends to sacrifice liberties and trust in strong-looking leaders, allowing leaders to consolidate power
3	Examples of fear in politics Bush using terrorism in 2004 presidential campaign (ex: http://www.dailyrecycler.com/blog/2004/10/oh-my.html) McCarthyism in the 1950s Reagan/Carter election in 1980
4	Hypothesis For fear to be effective politically, the majority of the population needs to be afraid of a variety of fears, regardless of political party Certain factors, such as education (class) and gender will tend to be more fearful than others
5	Method The number of people reporting environmental concerns was cross-tabulated with the fear of nuclear war from the PEW Values survey (1994-2003) Those reporting both environmental and nuclear war concerns were combined into one variable, “highly fearful” This variable was examined with both education and gender, controlling for political party, to determine which demographics tend to be more fearful
6	Survey Questions QUESTION: I often worry about the chances of nuclear war QUESTION: There need to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment
7	Highly Fearful Variable Unfortunately, the second question does not address environmental fear directly In forming the “highly fearful” variable, the highly fearful were those that expressed high concern over nuclear war and those that expressed complete to modest agreement on stricter environmental laws
8	Highly Fearful
9	Education
10	Gender
11	Results Those with lower education are more likely to be fearful than higher education, and women are more likely to be more fearful than men Both education and gender were found to have a greater impact on fear than party
12	Benefits of Fear Studies of inter-group conflict demonstrate that fear promotes cohesion within the group Groups with common enemy to fear are more cohesive than groups without a common enemy Thus some groups may need something to fear in order to survive
13	A Report from Iron Mountain Published in 1967 during Vietnam War, supposedly by Special Study Group (SSG) Speculated on the effects of peace on the United States
14	A Report from Iron Mountain Report concluded that: Economy too dependent on war, would destabilize without it Ability to wage war part of national identity, thus peace could result in break-down of the nation Peace could undermine stability of the nation
15	A Report from Iron Mountain Suggested “Alternative Enemies” Omnipresent, omnipotent police force “Socially oriented blood sports,” ala Spanish Inquisition Reports of extraterrestrial threats Massive, planned global environmental pollution
16	A Report from Iron Mountain Report was in fact a hoax, as revealed by Leonard C. Lewin in a 1972 article in the NY Times Nevertheless illustrates the powerful cohesion provided by common fear When one particular fear is overcome, the group experiences a “fear vacuum” in which one of two things happens
17	Fear Vacuum Case 1: the end of a common fear results in the group disintegrating (e.g. Yugoslavia breaking up after the Cold War)
18	Fear Vacuum Case 2: the end of a common fear causes another common fear to gain more prominence (e.g. global warming fears become more prominent after the Cold War)
19	Fear Vacuum Case 2: the end of a common fear causes another common fear to gain more prominence (e.g. global warming fears become more prominent after the Cold War, and then military fears regained dominance after 9/11
20	Environmental Fears A recent Time Magazine cover indicates that global warming fears could be regaining supremacy
21	Environmental Fears
22	Approval Rating Low Telephone poll of 1,012 adult Americans 32 percent of respondents said they approve of Bush's performance 60 percent said they disapprove 8 percent said they do not know.
23	“fuel of the future” Earth Day 2006 Make a quicker transition to domestically produced alternative fuel sources.
24	Suppression of Findings “NOAA's budget for climate research and services is now $250 million, up from $241 million in 2004.” “In November 2005, they agreed to issue a release on a different climate-related paper, Milly said, but "purged key words from the releases, including 'global warming,' 'warming climate' and 'climate change.' ” ”
25	No, But Yes “NOAA scientists, however, cite repeated instances in which the administration played down the threat of climate change in their documents and news releases. Although Bush and his top advisers have said that Earth is warming and human activity has contributed to this, they have questioned some predictions and caution that mandatory limits on carbon dioxide could damage the nation's economy.”
26	No Comment “Mahoney and other NOAA officials have told researchers not to give their opinions on policy matters. Konrad Steffen directs the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Steffen studies the Greenland ice sheet, and when his work was cited last spring in a major international report on climate change in the Arctic, he and another NOAA lab director from Alaska received a call from Mahoney in which he told them not to give reporters their opinions on global warming.”
27	Fears by Party Typically, the Republican party is considered strong on national defense but weak on the environment, with the Democrats being the opposite These attempts to prevent global warming report from appearing demonstrate an attempt to keep the public from fearing global warming, which would help the Democrats politically
28	Conclusions Since the most fearful tend to be less educated with lower income, they will tend to rely more on fewer sources, and thus lack proper context The majority of the population tends to be fearful, thus political groups will continue to manipulate fear in their campaigns
29	Conclusions Controlling what the electorate fears will strengthens political groups, making the politics of fear vital to any campaign Furthermore, these common fears may be necessary to preserve cohesion Thus fear will not be going away any time soon
30	Possible Fears of the Future Water Energy Oil Homeland Security Budget Deficit